How Much Longer Will the Traffic Bonus Last? Threads Opens Up to the Fediverse, Allowing "Fluff" Content into the Open Network
#613
GM,
It's been a while since we met on a Thursday. We're finally back to our regular schedule of three issues per week. In the past few days, I received private messages from several members who missed the deadline to fill out the OP airdrop form. I anticipated this, so we are reopening the form for an additional two days starting today. The new deadline is Friday, July 5th, at 24:00. After that, there will be no further extensions! Now, let's get to the main topic. Let's start with a quick poll: Are you using Threads?
Threads does not have an official Chinese name; Taiwanese netizens have transliterated it as "脆" (Cui) or "串" (Chuan).
Blocktrend previously introduced this new social platform launched by Meta and the concept of the Fediverse in the article "Threads Joins the Fediverse: A Wobbly Old Platform and an Unripe New Network." A year later, after Taiwan's presidential election, Threads has unexpectedly become the most popular social application. Yesterday, I posted a "thread" on Threads for testing, and a brief two-line post surprisingly reached over 56,000 people, setting a new record for my account.
High engagement rates on Threads are naturally celebrated by the page administrators. However, many believe this is just because Threads is still in its traffic bonus phase and hasn't yet been "spoiled by advertising," ultimately ending up as just another trap for naive users. Initially, I agreed with this view, but I believe that the Fediverse feature that Threads rolled out this week could be the first step towards breaking the "scam cycle."
Fediverse
Most users might not have noticed that Threads' Fediverse feature is already live. The activation process is quite simple. After opening Threads, go to your "Profile Page" from the profile icon at the bottom right, click on "Settings" in the top right corner, select "Account," and you will see the "Fediverse Sharing Feature." Threads will briefly introduce the Fediverse to you:
When you enable the feature to share content to the Fediverse on Threads, your Threads profile and the content you post on Threads will be shared with users on other servers in the Fediverse. These users can search for and follow your profile from their own servers, view your posts, interact with your content, and share your content with any users inside or outside their server.
If you see a small icon resembling a Pokémon next to your account, it means the feature has been successfully activated, and your future posts on Threads will automatically be shared across the entire Fediverse.
The diagram below illustrates the relationship between Threads and the Fediverse. The Fediverse is the "universe" of social platforms, and Threads is one of its many planets. While the universe isn't bustling yet, it does have some familiar planets, with Flipboard, Tumblr, and Mastodon having joined before Threads.
Threads, Tumblr, and Flipboard are all planets in the Fediverse. / Image source
One of the greatest features of the Fediverse is its ability to enable "interstellar communication" and facilitate "interstellar migration." Yesterday, my "thread" received a comment from a resident of another planet. Threads notified me with "1 Fediverse reply from 1 server." When I opened it, I saw that the commenter’s account was i_am_moyu@mastodon.social. The part after @ indicates which service they are using.
This i_am_moyu did not leave the comment using the Threads app and might not even have a Threads account. They come from another planet in the Fediverse, mastodon.social, but can directly follow Blocktrend's Threads account and leave a comment. If I like their comment on Threads, they will receive a notification on their planet as well. In the future, when Threads fully supports Fediverse functionality, other planets will not only receive notifications but will also be able to reply to comments and share threads as if they were on the same planet.
As threads extend beyond a single platform into the universe, the traffic benefits brought by Threads will be unprecedented, marking the first step for users to break the scam cycle.
The same post can be viewed simultaneously on Threads and Mastodon, as they are both within the Fediverse. / Image source
The Leek Cycle
The concept of the "leek cycle" was introduced by Chris Dixon in his book Read Write Own, where it is referred to as the "attract-extract cycle." The Chinese edition of this book will soon be available in Taiwan, and the translator, Liu Weiren, has rendered the original text so vividly that it's easy for everyone to understand.
Almost all well-known social and video platforms trap users in the leek cycle. Initially, platforms attract users with subsidies or other incentives, but once they reach a significant scale and user growth plateaus, creators must pay for ads to reach more users. Developers need to pay to integrate with the platform's API, and users must pay to become members in order to remove annoying ads.
No one can escape this cycle. Leaving an existing platform is equivalent to starting over, with all accumulated followers and fans lost. Even a million-subscriber YouTuber moving to TikTok may not necessarily replicate their influence.
Simply paying is not a long-term solution either. Once platforms realize users are willing to pay, they will only continue to raise prices. Ultimately, users who choose to pay will find it increasingly difficult and regret not having burned their bridges.
Meta has already led two rounds of the leek cycle, so it's hard to believe Threads won't be the third. However, I'm willing to give Threads another chance, not because I fear being exploited, but because the Fediverse mechanism is right in front of us — applying the email operating model to social platforms makes it difficult for people to be exploited.
Do you remember who provided your first email account? I might have used Yahoo Mail (@kimo.com.tw) or Fancysweet (@yam.com.tw). A few years later, Yahoo acquired Kimo, and Fancysweet’s email service has long been discontinued. However, as long as I forwarded my emails before the service shut down, those old emails should still be in my inbox today.
This is because email follows a universal standard adopted by all providers, called the Simple Mail Transfer Protocol (SMTP). From early providers like Kimo and Fancysweet to current ones like Gmail and Proton Mail, these email services are like different planets in the universe. As long as the universal standard is in place, people can move freely between these different planets.
Applying the same concept to social platforms is the Fediverse, with the standard known as ActivityPub. Social platforms that adopt this standard are part of the Fediverse. Residents of these platforms can not only communicate across different "planets" but can also migrate between them if necessary.
Migration is a crucial feature that gives users the freedom to leave. If users want to leave Facebook or YouTube, they can download their published content, but the most important links cannot be taken. In the Fediverse, users can migrate with both content and links intact.
If Threads eventually reintroduces the leek cycle, reducing reach and increasing fees, users can theoretically migrate according to the Fediverse mechanism. Just as users might immediately move if Gmail starts charging, having the option to migrate keeps platforms in check.
But people may also wonder, what benefits does Meta gain from Threads joining the Fediverse and facilitating user migration?
Meta's Machination
The launch of the Fediverse on Threads is like a student from a remedial class suddenly sitting down to study hard. Everyone wonders, what exactly happened? Even if the student says it’s because they want to study seriously, people are likely to remain skeptical. Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, is like this student. If he says it's because he wants to build a better social network, few will believe it.
However, I am willing to believe that he is serious this time, for two main reasons:
Meta is the King of Closed Networks
Open Networks Are More Profitable Than Closed Networks
Meta’s latest financial report indicates that 3.24 billion people use their social applications daily. With a global population of 8 billion, and 5 billion people online, Meta already holds a significant share, but continued growth is challenging. Since the existing model has reached its limits, Meta is shifting to a new battleground. The open social network, which is still relatively untapped, represents a new frontier with fewer corporate players involved.
Additionally, if managed well, open networks have the potential to be more profitable than closed networks. Nowadays, platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and LINE are saturated with bot accounts. These platforms still struggle to address the issue, and no third-party developers are stepping up to help. The reasons could be that these platforms are inherently closed or that developers were driven away during the leek cycle.
There was a time when people’s email inboxes were flooded with spam. However, different email service providers collaborated to devise solutions and test mechanisms to tackle spam more efficiently than a single company could on its own. If email had been closed off, spam would have been even worse today.
If Threads cannot exploit users, even with advertising, it must carefully manage ad density. How can businesses make money? I would argue that this is an inherently problematic issue. Why must making money rely on exploiting users rather than having users willingly spend money? Although Threads currently has no paid options, I believe that even if it introduces paid features in the future, it will aim to align with user interests rather than opposing them, unlike Facebook and Instagram.
From this perspective, the flow of traffic benefits on Threads is just beginning.
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